Comments on howtopowertheworld.com Blog: BP discovers oil field in Gulf of Mexico

Hi Tony, thanks for commenting. I didn't include ...

2009-09-04T11:16:34.241+01:00

Hi Tony, thanks for commenting.

I didn't include natural gas in my "analysis" of the situation. I know that they are frequently found together, but I assumed that natural gas and oil are independent of each other, given their different uses.

I don't expect hydrocarbon fuels (fossil, not bio) to disappear; in fact I expect gas usage to increase along with coal (hopefully fitted with carbon sequestration and storage technology, but probably not).

Oil however, will probably dwindle, unless effort is put into recovering from oil sands. The non newsworthy discoveries are probably so small as to be negligible, by the logic that if this new one is newsworthy yet ultimately unhelpful then non newsworthy ones would be tiny.

Even another Ghawar would probably only give us another couple of years.

I'm unaware of this North Dakota discovery, can you link me to a reference? 300 billion barrels does seem like rather a lot, and yes, easily accessible oil of that magnitude would make a difference. It sounds more like oil sands, though, which are more costly, less efficient and more damaging than drilling into an oil well. I doubt it would all be recoverable either.

You are correct that this one discovery does not c...

2009-09-03T23:13:46.914+01:00

You are correct that this one discovery does not change things much. However, the hundreds of other discoveries that never make the news, that take place every day, do change the curve. As of this year, the US has more known supplies of natural gas than at any time in the past, thanks to the discoveries you haven't read about. Currently there are at least ten times (estmates go as high as 300 Billion bbls) more oil than this that has been discovered in North Dakota in the past two years or so- so does that change the curve? As US natural gas technology goes worldwide, the reserves of natural gas are likely to expand several times over, leaving us with centuries of natural gas supplies, which in turn can be converted to other forms of hydrocarbons, hydrogen, and all the other material we use petroleum for. There is no shortage of hydrocarbons. The challenge will be how to use them responsibly. The real folly is in assuming that hydrocarbons are history.

Alas I don't know him, Sean!

2009-09-03T11:26:33.367+01:00

Alas I don't know him, Sean!

i think you and ed townes should have a big debate...

2009-09-03T11:17:32.987+01:00

i think you and ed townes should have a big debate to which everybody can spectate. Or a physical fight